The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
NC-02 (Safe Democratic) · NC-03 (Leans Republican) · NC-04 (Safe Democratic) · NC-05 (Likely Republican) · NC-06 (Likely Republican) · NC-07 (Leans Republican) · NC-08 (Likely Republican) · NC-09 (Likely Republican) · NC-10 (Likely Republican) · NC-11 (Toss-up) · NC-12 (Safe Democratic) · NC-13 (Likely Republican) · NC-14 (Leans Republican)
Crosstab rates North Carolina's 1st District Leans Republican: Democrats have a 40% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 1.8 points.
Don Davis (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.