The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
NY-01 (Toss-up) · NY-02 (Leans Republican) · NY-03 (Likely Democratic) · NY-04 (Likely Democratic) · NY-05 (Safe Democratic) · NY-06 (Safe Democratic) · NY-07 (Safe Democratic) · NY-08 (Safe Democratic) · NY-09 (Safe Democratic) · NY-10 (Safe Democratic) · NY-11 (Safe Republican) · NY-13 (Safe Democratic) · NY-14 (Safe Democratic) · NY-15 (Safe Democratic) · NY-16 (Safe Democratic) · NY-17 (Likely Democratic) · NY-18 (Safe Democratic) · NY-19 (Safe Democratic) · NY-20 (Safe Democratic) · NY-21 (Likely Republican) · NY-22 (Safe Democratic) · NY-23 (Likely Republican) · NY-24 (Safe Republican) · NY-25 (Safe Democratic) · NY-26 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates New York's 12th District Safe Democratic: Democrats have a 100% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 74.2 points.
Jerry Nadler (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.