The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
MI-02 (Safe Republican) · MI-03 (Safe Democratic) · MI-04 (Leans Democratic) · MI-05 (Safe Republican) · MI-06 (Safe Democratic) · MI-07 (Likely Democratic) · MI-08 (Likely Democratic) · MI-09 (Safe Republican) · MI-10 (Leans Democratic) · MI-11 (Safe Democratic) · MI-12 (Safe Democratic) · MI-13 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates Michigan's 1st District Likely Republican: Democrats have a 6% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 10.8 points.
Jack Bergman (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.