The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
MD-02 (Safe Democratic) · MD-03 (Safe Democratic) · MD-04 (Safe Democratic) · MD-05 (Safe Democratic) · MD-06 (Safe Democratic) · MD-07 (Safe Democratic) · MD-08 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates Maryland's 1st District Likely Republican: Democrats have a 17% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 6.8 points.
Andy Harris (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.