The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
KY-01 (Safe Republican) · KY-02 (Safe Republican) · KY-03 (Safe Democratic) · KY-05 (Safe Republican) · KY-06 (Leans Republican)
Crosstab rates Kentucky's 4th District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 0% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 25.8 points.
Thomas Massie (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.