The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
KY-01 (Safe Republican) · KY-02 (Safe Republican) · KY-04 (Safe Republican) · KY-05 (Safe Republican) · KY-06 (Leans Republican)
Crosstab rates Kentucky's 3rd District Safe Democratic: Democrats have a 100% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 29.2 points.
Morgan McGarvey (Democrat) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.