Texas Governor: NYT/Siena poll shows Hinojosa up 3 points
An A+-rated pollster's survey puts Hinojosa ahead of Abbott 49%-46%, a result markedly more favorable to Hinojosa than other polls were showing at the time, even though the Crosstab average still has Abbott up 2.5 points in a Toss-up race.
Texas Governor: the Crosstab average is Hinojosa (D) 46.5%, Abbott (R) 49%: Abbott +2.5.
NY Times/Siena (Crosstab grade A+, Trust Score 84), Oct 1: Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%, 615 likely voters; Hinojosa +6.8 compared with other polls at the time; this pollster's 2026 polls lean R+1 on average.
From Crosstab Daily for Sunday, October 4, 2026: every number checked against Crosstab's polling data before publication.
The numbers behind American politics, every morning at 6:30 ET. Free, checked against the data, never a prediction.