The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
NJ-01 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-02 (Leans Republican) · NJ-03 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-05 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-06 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-07 (Likely Democratic) · NJ-08 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-09 (Likely Democratic) · NJ-10 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-11 (Safe Democratic) · NJ-12 (Safe Democratic)
Crosstab rates New Jersey's 4th District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 0% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 19.8 points.
Chris Smith (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.