The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
MS-02 (Safe Democratic) · MS-03 (Safe Republican) · MS-04 (Safe Republican)
Crosstab rates Mississippi's 1st District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 0% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 26.8 points.
Trent Kelly (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.