The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
IA-01 (Leans Democratic) · IA-03 (Likely Democratic) · IA-04 (Safe Republican)
Crosstab rates Iowa's 2nd District Toss-up: Democrats have a 51% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Democrats ahead by 0.2 points.
Ashley Hinson (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.