Alaska governor average tightens nearly 7 points in a week
Kreiss-Tomkins's lead over Wilson in the Alaska governor's race has narrowed to 10.1 points, down from 16.8 a week ago, as the Crosstab average now stands at 50.7% to 40.6%.
The New York Times/Siena University survey, graded A+ with a Trust Score of 84 in the Crosstab Trust Index, found Kreiss-Tomkins up just 52% to 48% among 431 likely voters on Oct 1. That was 12.8 points tighter than other polls at the time, though this pollster's 2026 polls have leaned R+1 on average. Cygnal, in a poll sponsored by a Republican group, graded A with a Trust Score of 76, put Kreiss-Tomkins ahead 44% to 24% among 502 likely voters on Sep 27.
The third poll cuts the other way. Fabrizio/Anzalone, not yet graded by Crosstab, had Kreiss-Tomkins up 55% to 45% among 800 likely voters on Sep 17, from a pollster whose 2026 polls lean D+2 on average.
Three polls is a thin foundation for a race this size, and Crosstab still rates it Leans Democratic. Polymarket traders give Democrats a 74% chance on about $1.4 million traded. That's more bullish than the polling shift alone would suggest.
From Crosstab Daily for Tuesday, October 6, 2026: every number checked against Crosstab's polling data before publication.
The numbers behind American politics, every morning at 6:30 ET. Free, checked against the data, never a prediction.