Trust Score 47/100, rank #39 of 72 (medium confidence; grade held in 69% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #22–56). Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 44th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 28th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±3.2 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 6/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 11 | 3.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2004 | 10 | 3.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2008 | 7 | 4.2 | R+4.2 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2012 | 7 | 3 | R+3 |
Open Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group is rated B- in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 47 of 100, rank 39 of 72, medium confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 3.5 points on average, against 3.3 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 50% of races.
Historically, Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group's misses leaned R+1.5 on average. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.