Trust Score 50/100, rank #34 of 72 (medium confidence; grade held in 67% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #15–57).
| Trust Score percentile | 51th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 93th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±3.6 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 5/10 |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 4 | 3.5 | R+3.5 |
| 2000 | 3 | 1 | R+1 |
| 2002 | 8 | 5.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2004 | 3 | 4.3 | R+4.3 |
| 2006 | 1 | 2.2 | D+2.2 |
| 2016 | 2 | 3.6 | R+1.3 |
Open Ciruli Associates in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Ciruli Associates is rated B in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 50 of 100, rank 34 of 72, medium confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 3.9 points on average, against 5.6 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 86% of races.
Historically, Ciruli Associates's misses leaned R+1.7 on average. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.