Trust Score 40/100, rank #46 of 72 (low confidence; grade held in 30% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #7–64). Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 36th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 42th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±4.2 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 6/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 12 | 4.3 | even |
| 2002 | 16 | 4.3 | D+0.8 |
| 2004 | 16 | 3.1 | D+0.3 |
| 2006 | 2 | 5.6 | R+5.6 |
| 2008 | 19 | 3.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2010 | 2 | 2 | even |
| 2012 | 9 | 5.1 | R+5.1 |
| 2014 | 4 | 3.4 | R+0.8 |
| 2016 | 4 | 3.8 | R+1.4 |
| 2020 | 3 | 13.3 | D+13.3 |
Open American Research Group in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
American Research Group is rated B- in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 40 of 100, rank 46 of 72, low confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.2 points on average, against 4.2 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 68% of races.
Historically, American Research Group's misses leaned even on average. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.