Crosstab Live Morning: Michigan Moves, Kansas Watch

Transcript

Maya Good morning, and welcome to Crosstab Live Morning. We're starting with a new poll out of Michigan's Senate race, and it's got some real movement.

Daniel Daniel here, Maya. RedBox Research just came in with Democrat El-Sayed at 49 percent, Republican Rogers at 44. That's a 5 point lead for El-Sayed.

Maya So how does that line up against the polling average, Daniel?

Daniel The average now has El-Sayed up 2.5 points, up from 1.9 before this poll. That's a 0.6 point move toward El-Sayed.

Maya That's a real move, Daniel. Let's check Nevada's Governor race too.

Daniel Concord Public Opinion Partners has Lombardo at 43 percent, Ford at 42. Just a 1 point gap there. The average puts Lombardo up 0.6 points.

Maya Zooming out, Daniel, where does the Senate picture stand this morning?

Daniel Democrats have a 66 percent chance of winning control, up from 65 percent. Republicans sit at 34 percent. The most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And the national mood, Daniel? What are approval and the generic ballot showing?

Daniel Trump's approval is at 36 percent, disapproval at 59. On the generic ballot, Democrats are at 52.8 percent, Republicans at 45.5.

Daniel You've been staring at these crosstabs all morning too, Maya. Which number's got your attention?

Maya Honestly, that Michigan shift, Daniel. Before we go, let's flag a race we're watching that hasn't come up yet today: Kansas Senate.

Daniel Republican Marshall leads Democrat Hamilton by just 0.1 points there, across 13 polls. It's a race we're watching closely.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Morning. Join us again at noon Eastern.