Crosstab Live Midday: New York Jumps, Senate Map Holds

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, I'm Maya, and this is Crosstab Live Midday. We start with a brand new poll in New York Governor, Daniel.

Daniel Good to be back, Maya. ActiVote just put out New York Governor: Hochul at 59 percent, Blakeman at 41. That's Hochul by 18 points.

Maya Eighteen points is a big number. How does that move the crosstab average there, Daniel?

Daniel The average now has Hochul up 12.6 points, up from 11.2 before this poll. That's a shift of 1.4 points toward Hochul.

Maya We've got 26 new polls in the system today. Let's get to the Senate map, starting in Michigan.

Daniel InsiderAdvantage has El-Sayed at 47 percent, Rogers at 46. The crosstab average there is El-Sayed by 1.9 points.

Maya And Ohio, Daniel? What's new there?

Daniel InsiderAdvantage has Brown at 47 percent, Husted at 44. The average now is Brown by 3.9 points.

Maya Let's check the governors too. Texas and Kansas both got new numbers, Daniel.

Daniel In Texas, ActiVote has Abbott at 52.5 percent, Hinojosa at 47.5. Average there is Abbott by 3.3 points. In Kansas, the new poll has Holscher at 47 percent, Masterson also at 47. The average is still Masterson by 3.3, down from 4.1.

Daniel Maya, out of everything we just ran through, which number stands out to you?

Maya The Senate math, Daniel. Democrats have a 65 percent chance of winning control, with 52 seats the most likely outcome.

Daniel The national numbers back that up. Trump's approval is 36 percent, disapproval 59. The generic ballot has Democrats at 52.8, Republicans at 45.5.

Maya Before we go, what's the one race we haven't covered yet today, Daniel?

Daniel Kansas Senate. Marshall leads Hamilton by just 0.1 points across 13 polls. A race we're watching, within 1 point.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Midday. Join us again at 4 p.m. Eastern.