Crosstab Live Midday: Texas Numbers Move, Kansas Stays Tight

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome to Crosstab Live Midday. We're 13 days out from the election, and Daniel, let's start with the newest numbers out of Texas.

Daniel Good to be here, Maya. Emerson released a new Texas Senate poll on October 19th: Democrat Talarico leads Republican Paxton 48 to 46, a 2 point edge.

Maya That's a real move, Daniel. Where does that put the crosstab average?

Daniel The crosstab average now has Talarico up 1.3 points. Still a race we're watching closely.

Maya Emerson was busy today. Did they also poll the Texas governor's race?

Daniel They did, same date, October 19th. Abbott leads Hinojosa 49 to 45, a 4 point spread in that poll.

Maya And what does that do to the average there, Daniel?

Daniel Abbott's average moved to plus 3.3 points, up 0.6 from plus 2.7 the last time we checked in on Texas.

Maya Let's zoom out to the national map. What's the picture on Senate control right now?

Daniel Democrats hold a 65 percent chance of winning control, Republicans sit at 35 percent. The single most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And where do the President's numbers stand today?

Daniel Trump's approval is at 36 percent, disapproval at 59 percent. On the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 52.8 to 45.5.

Daniel One more before we go, Maya - Kansas Senate hasn't come up yet today. Republican Marshall leads Democrat Hamilton by just 0.1 points, with 13 polls counted so far. What's your take on a margin that thin?

Maya 0.1 points across 13 polls - that's a tight one, Daniel. Definitely one we'll keep watching through the next update.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Midday. Join us again at 4 p.m. Eastern.