Crosstab Live Tonight: New York Widens, Iowa Tightens

Transcript

Maya Good evening, and welcome to Crosstab Live Tonight. We have a brand new poll out of New York's Governor race, and it's a striking one.

Daniel Quinnipiac has Hochul at 55 percent, Blakeman at 41. That's a 14 point lead.

Maya Fourteen points, Daniel. How does that compare with where the race has been sitting?

Daniel Our crosstab average now puts Hochul up 12 points. This new poll runs a touch wider, but it tells the same story.

Maya Let's head to Iowa. I hear there's real movement in that Senate race, Daniel.

Daniel There is. A new GS Strategy Group poll has Turek ahead of Hinson, 46 to 44. In our average, Hinson still leads, but by just 0.7 points, down from 1.2.

Maya That's a real move, Daniel. Under one point now.

Daniel It is. The same pollster has the Iowa Governor's race at Sand 54, Lahn 43, an 11 point lead. Our average has Sand up 6.4 points.

Maya And Ohio gave us two new numbers tonight as well?

Daniel It did. In the Governor's race, Acton leads Ramaswamy 49 to 44, a 5 point edge, average 4.4. In the Senate special, Brown leads Husted 49 to 43, a 6 point edge, average now 3.1.

Maya Let's turn to a race we're watching tonight, Daniel. Kansas.

Daniel Kansas Senate, Republican Marshall holds just a 0.1 point edge over Democrat Hamilton, across 13 polls.

Maya Zooming out, Daniel, where does that leave the fight for the Senate overall?

Daniel Nationally, Democrats have a 65 percent chance of winning control, Republicans a 35 percent chance. The most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats. Trump's approval sits at 36 percent, disapproval at 59. The generic ballot has Democrats at 52.8, Republicans at 45.5. Maya, which of those numbers stands out most to you?

Maya Honestly, Daniel, it's that 0.7 in Iowa. One of the smallest margins on the board tonight.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Tonight. Thanks for joining us, and we'll see you next time with more numbers.