Crosstab Live Afternoon: Iowa Flips, Georgia and Carolina Tighten

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome to Crosstab Live Afternoon. We're leading with a change at the top of the board: Iowa's Senate race has a new leader.

Daniel That's right, Maya. Republican Hinson now leads Democrat Turek by 1.2 points. Last update, Turek was ahead by 0.5.

Maya What tipped it, Daniel - a single new poll?

Daniel A co/efficient poll released October 19th has Hinson at 48 percent, Turek at 45 - a 3-point result that pulled the full average to 1.2 points for Hinson.

Maya Let's check Georgia's Senate race next, Daniel.

Daniel A new ActiVote poll has Ossoff leading Collins 54 to 46, an 8-point margin. The crosstab average now stands at 8.3 points for Ossoff.

Maya And North Carolina - any fresh numbers there?

Daniel Cooper leads Whatley 57 to 43 in a new ActiVote poll, a 14-point margin. That's above the 11.2-point crosstab average for Cooper.

Maya Beyond those two, what else moved on the board?

Daniel A few shifts. Montana's Senate margin eased to 19 points from 19.4. Massachusetts governor's race widened to 22.5 points from 18.7 for Healey.

Maya What's the forecast showing on Senate control, Daniel?

Daniel Democrats sit at a 65 percent chance of winning Senate control, down from 67 percent, with 52 seats the most likely count. Trump's approval is 36 percent, disapproval 59.

Daniel Turn it back on you, Maya - Kansas is a race we're watching. Marshall's ahead by just 0.1 points after 13 polls. What's your read?

Maya I'd call it a race we're watching, Daniel - a tenth of a point separating Hamilton and Marshall.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Afternoon. Join us again at 9 p.m. Eastern.