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Crosstab Live Morning: Kansas Flips, New Polls Across Four States

October 16, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET · 2:48 · 0 views · ❤️ 0 ▶ Watch in Crosstab LiveAll shows
Maya and Daniel, Crosstab Live. Maya and Daniel on the Kansas Senate race, the Texas Senate race, the Maine Senate race and the Michigan Senate race. Nonpartisan polling analysis; every number is checked against Crosstab's data before it airs.

Transcript

Maya Good morning, and welcome to Crosstab Live Morning. We're starting with a lead change in the Kansas Senate race.

Daniel Republican Marshall now leads Hamilton by 0.1 points. Before this update, Hamilton was ahead by 0.6 points.

Maya That's a race within 1 point now, Daniel. What does the new poll show underneath that number?

Daniel The new InsiderAdvantage poll has Marshall at 48 percent, Hamilton at 47 percent, a 1 point edge for Marshall. But our running average now shows the race tied.

Maya Let's run through the rest of the new polls, Daniel. What's happening in Texas?

Daniel InsiderAdvantage has Paxton at 49 percent, Talarico at 48 percent there, a 1 point edge for Paxton. But the crosstab average still has Talarico leading by 2.5 points, down from 3.3 points.

Maya A move of 0.8 points in that average. What about Maine?

Daniel In Maine, the same pollster has Jackson at 49 percent, Collins at 47 percent, a 2 point edge for Jackson. Our average has Jackson up 2.3 points.

Maya And Michigan, Daniel?

Daniel The Tyson Group has Rogers at 46 percent, El-Sayed at 44 percent there, a 2 point edge for Rogers. But the average still favors El-Sayed, up 2.4 points, down from 2.9 points before.

Maya Let's zoom out. Where does all of this leave the fight for the Senate?

Daniel Democrats now have a 67 percent chance of winning control, Republicans 33 percent. That's down from 68 percent for Democrats before this update. The most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And the national numbers, Daniel? How's the president looking, and the generic ballot?

Daniel President Trump's approval is at 37 percent, disapproval at 61.3 percent. On the generic ballot, Democrats are at 52.8 percent, Republicans at 45.5 percent. Maya, before we wrap, remind everyone how many days we have left?

Maya Nineteen days, Daniel. And one more before we go: Nevada's Governor race. Thirteen polls in, no leader yet. It's a race we're watching.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Morning. Join us again at noon Eastern.