Crosstab Live Afternoon: Minnesota Senate and the Senate Forecast

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome to Crosstab Live Afternoon. We've got a fresh number out of Minnesota Senate: a new SurveyUSA poll has Democrat Flanagan up three points over Tafoya.

Daniel That's right, Maya. SurveyUSA has Flanagan at forty-five percent, Tafoya at forty-two. A three-point edge in that one poll.

Maya How does that line up with the broader average, Daniel?

Daniel Our crosstab average also shows Flanagan ahead by three points. This poll matches right where the race has been sitting.

Maya Let's check New York Governor next - there's some movement there since our last update.

Daniel Beacon Research has Hochul at fifty-three percent, Blakeman at thirty-one, a twenty-two-point spread in that single poll. But look at the average - Hochul's margin moved from nine-point-eight points to eleven-point-seven, a shift of one-point-nine points.

Maya And that nudges the overall Senate forecast too, doesn't it?

Daniel It does, a little. Our forecast for Democratic Senate control moved from sixty-nine percent to sixty-eight percent since the last update. What do you make of a one-point move like that, Maya?

Maya Honestly, I'd call that noise, Daniel - these numbers tick around day to day.

Daniel Fair point. Right now Democrats have a sixty-eight percent chance of winning control, Republicans thirty-two percent, with fifty-two seats the most likely outcome.

Maya Before we go, what's the race to watch today?

Daniel Nevada Governor. Thirteen polls in, and neither Ford nor Lombardo holds a lead right now - the margin sits at zero. A race we're watching closely.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Afternoon. Join us again at 9 p.m. Eastern.