Crosstab Live Tonight: Texas Tightens, Florida Holds

Transcript

Maya Good evening, and welcome to Crosstab Live Tonight. There's a brand new poll out of Texas Senate, so let's start right there, Daniel.

Daniel Good to be here, Maya. Quantus Insights has Republican Paxton at 47.2 percent, Democrat Talarico at 46.7 percent. That's a 0.5 point margin.

Maya Does that move our overall average in Texas?

Daniel Not really. Our crosstab average still has Talarico ahead by 3 points. One poll shifts the conversation, it doesn't rewrite the average.

Maya That's a race we're watching, Daniel, no question.

Daniel It is. Let's jump to Florida, where Stetson University just dropped two new numbers.

Maya Start with the Governor's race. What's it show?

Daniel Donalds at 52 percent, Jolly at 41 percent, an 11 point margin in this poll. Our running average has Donalds up 5.7 points.

Maya And the Senate race there looks similar?

Daniel Very similar. Moody at 52 percent, Nixon at 41 percent, also an 11 point gap. The average there has Moody up 7.1 points.

Maya Let's zoom out to the national picture, Daniel.

Daniel Democrats have a 69 percent chance of winning Senate control right now, Republicans sit at 31 percent, with 52 seats as the most likely outcome. Trump's approval is 37 percent, disapproval 61.3 percent, and the generic ballot has Democrats at 50.9 percent to Republicans' 42.1.

Daniel What jumps out to you in that approval number, Maya?

Maya That gap between 37 and 61.3 is a big one, Daniel, however you slice it.

Daniel One more before we go. Nevada Governor: 13 polls in, no leader yet between Ford and Lombardo. A race we're watching closely.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Tonight. Thanks for joining us, and we'll see you next time.