Texas Numbers on the Move

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, this is Crosstab Live Midday. We've got a brand new poll out of Texas moving our Senate board right now.

Daniel That's right, Maya. ReconMR and Siena University put Talarico up 48 to 44 over Paxton, a 4 point lead.

Maya How does that line up with the average, Daniel?

Daniel It nudges it up. The crosstab average moves from Talarico plus 2.8 to Talarico plus 3.3, a half point shift.

Maya A real move, Daniel, even if it's a small one.

Daniel We've also got two new polls out in the Governor's race, and they don't agree with each other. Which one do you want first, Maya?

Maya Let's start with GBAO.

Daniel GBAO has Hinojosa up 47 to 45, a 2 point edge. ReconMR and Siena has it the other way, Abbott up 48 to 47, a 1 point edge.

Maya So where does that leave the average?

Daniel Abbott plus 1.1 now, that's down from plus 2.2 before today's polls came in. Still Abbott's lead, just smaller.

Maya Let's zoom out, Daniel. What's the national picture look like?

Daniel Democrats have a 69 percent chance of winning Senate control, up from 68 percent. The most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats. Trump's approval sits at 37 percent, disapproval at 61.3. On the generic ballot, Democrats are at 50.9, Republicans at 42.1.

Maya Any race we haven't touched on yet today?

Daniel Nevada's Governor race, Ford versus Lombardo. 13 polls in so far, and the average doesn't have a leader yet. That's a race we're watching.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Midday. Join us again at 4 p.m. Eastern.