Crosstab Live Morning: California Jumps, Florida Levels Out

Transcript

Maya Good morning, and welcome to Crosstab Live Morning. Our top story: a new poll out of California's Governor race just landed.

Daniel Maya, the Manhattan Institute has Becerra at 57 percent, Hilton at 39. That's an 18-point gap in this single poll.

Maya Eighteen points in one poll is a lot, Daniel. How does that line up with the running average?

Daniel The crosstab average now has Becerra up 16.5 points. So this new poll sits right near that line.

Maya Let's move to Florida, Daniel. I know we've got fresh numbers there too.

Daniel We do. Change Research puts Jolly and Donalds at 47 percent each, with no leader in this one survey.

Maya That's Florida in one poll. What does the broader average say, Daniel?

Daniel The average still has Donalds ahead by 5.3 points. One poll, even at 47 apiece, didn't move that line today.

Maya Good context, Daniel. Let's zoom out — where does the Senate map stand this morning?

Daniel Democrats sit at a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans at 32. Most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And on the national numbers, what's new with approval and the generic ballot?

Daniel No movement there, Maya. Trump approval sits at 37 percent, disapproval at 61.3. Generic ballot: Democrats 50.9, Republicans 42.1.

Maya Before we go, Daniel, give us a race to watch that we haven't covered yet today.

Daniel Nevada's Governor race. Thirteen polls in, and right now there's no leader between Ford and Lombardo. We'll keep tracking it for you, Maya.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Morning. Join us again at noon Eastern.