Texas Shifts, Senate Odds Tick Up

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, I'm Maya, this is Crosstab Live Afternoon. Daniel, let's start with the headline out of Texas.

Daniel Hey Maya. Brand-new Trafalgar Group poll in the Texas Senate race has Talarico at 47 percent, Paxton at 44. That's a 3-point lead for Talarico.

Maya How does that line up with the broader average there, Daniel?

Daniel Close. The crosstab average now has Talarico up 2.8 points. So this poll's right in line with where the race already sat.

Maya Does that move our overall forecast at all?

Daniel A little. The Democratic chance of winning control of the Senate was at 69 percent, up from 68. One point.

Maya So where's the map sit for Senate control right now?

Daniel Democrats at 69 percent, Republicans at 31. Most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And what's the national mood look like today, Daniel?

Daniel Trump's approval is 37 percent, disapproval 61.3. On the generic ballot, Democrats lead 50.9 to 42.1.

Maya Let's bring in a race we're watching that hasn't come up today, Nevada Governor.

Daniel Thirteen polls in and there's no leader to report, Ford or Lombardo. Genuinely within 1 point there. Maya, if you had to flag one number for viewers before 9, what would it be?

Maya I'd say that 69 percent Senate control number, Daniel. It's the one that actually moved today.

Daniel Fair pick. We'll keep tracking it for you.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Afternoon. Join us again at 9 p.m. Eastern.