Crosstab Live Midday: Iowa Tightens, Ohio Diverges

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome to Crosstab Live Midday. Daniel, we've got a new Emerson poll out of Iowa's Senate race, so let's get right to it.

Daniel We do, Maya. Emerson has Hinson at 47 percent, Turek at 45. That's Hinson up 2 points, dated October 6th.

Maya And where does that leave the overall picture in Iowa?

Daniel Our crosstab average still shows that race tied. SSRS had Hinson 45, Turek 43 just a day earlier. Two polls, same 2-point margin, average flat.

Maya Let's go to Ohio, Daniel. There's a co/efficient poll in today too.

Daniel There is. Husted 46, Brown 45. Just 1 point there, dated October 6th.

Maya That's a lot tighter than what SSRS showed yesterday, isn't it, Daniel?

Daniel Much tighter. SSRS had Brown up 49 to 43, a 6-point margin. Our crosstab average for Ohio sits at Brown plus 3.5.

Maya What about the governor's races? Iowa moved some overnight.

Daniel It did. Emerson has Sand 49, Lahn 45. Our average there is now Sand plus 8.5, down from plus 9.5.

Maya And Maine Senate had some movement too, Daniel.

Daniel It did. The Washington Post and SSPG poll has Jackson 50, Collins 46. Our average is now Jackson plus 1.6, up from plus 0.8.

Maya Zooming out, Daniel, where does the Senate map stand nationally?

Daniel Democrats have a 67 percent chance of winning control, Republicans 33 percent. Most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats. What's your read on that number, Maya?

Maya It tracks with the generic ballot, Daniel. Democrats 50.9 percent, Republicans 42.1 percent nationally.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Midday. Join us again at 4 p.m. Eastern.