Crosstab Live Afternoon: New York Widens, Texas Holds Steady

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome back to Crosstab Live Afternoon. We start in New York, where a new Emerson poll has Governor Hochul up big on Blakeman.

Daniel Emerson has Hochul at 52.4 percent, Blakeman at 39.7. That's a 12.7 point lead in this one poll, and it pushes our running average to 11.7 points for Hochul.

Maya That's a real jump, Daniel. Let's head to Texas, we've got two new Senate polls in today.

Daniel Guidant Polling and Strategy has Talarico at 46.6 percent to Paxton's 44.2. That's a 2.4 point edge for Talarico.

Maya And the other one, from UMass Lowell and YouGov?

Daniel That one has them even, 45 to 45. Put both together and our average sits at 2.6 points for Talarico.

Maya A race we're watching closely. What about the Texas Governor numbers, Daniel?

Daniel Guidant has Abbott at 46 percent, Hinojosa at 44, a 2 point gap. UMass Lowell has Abbott at 48, Hinojosa at 44, a 4 point gap. Average now sits at 2.2 points for Abbott.

Maya Daniel, before we move on, let's check the national picture. What's it look like?

Daniel Our model gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of winning Senate control, Republicans 33 percent. Most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And one more from Michigan, there's new Senate polling there too.

Daniel Guidant has El-Sayed at 48 percent, Rogers at 43, a 5 point lead. That moves our average for El-Sayed to 3.2 points.

Maya On the national numbers, where does Trump's approval stand?

Daniel 38.4 percent approve, 60.1 percent disapprove. On the generic ballot, Democrats are at 50.9 percent, Republicans at 42.1.

Maya And one race we're watching that hasn't come up yet, Nevada Governor, Ford versus Lombardo, 13 polls in and no clear leader there.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Afternoon. Join us again at 9 p.m. Eastern.