Iowa Senate Tightrope

Transcript

Maya Good evening, I'm Maya, with Daniel at the data wall. Twenty-seven days out, and the headline tonight is new polling out of Iowa's Senate race.

Daniel That's right, Maya. A new CNN poll has Hinson at 45, Turek at 43 - a 2-point race for the Republican, Hinson.

Maya But our running average doesn't show Hinson ahead, does it, Daniel?

Daniel It doesn't. Our average still has Turek up, 1.1 points - that's down from a 2.5-point lead last time, so Turek's margin narrowed by 1.4 points.

Maya Let's head to Ohio, Daniel - plenty of new numbers there too.

Daniel In the Senate race, Brown leads Husted 49 to 43 in that new CNN poll - 6 points. Our average now has Brown up 4, up from 3.4. In the governor's race, Acton leads Ramaswamy 50 to 42 - 8 points - and that average moved to 4.9 from 4.1.

Maya Iowa's governor race also got fresh numbers today, right?

Daniel It did. CNN has Sand leading Lahn 51 to 42 - 9 points. Our average has Sand up 9.5.

Maya What about Texas, Daniel? Viewers keep asking.

Daniel Two new polls there. UMass Lowell has Talarico and Paxton tied at 45. Guidant has Talarico up 3, 47 to 44. Our average: Talarico by 2.7. Maya, how many new polls did we get altogether today?

Maya Ten, Daniel - that's a full data wall tonight. So where does all this leave the Senate majority math?

Daniel Democrats have a 67 percent chance of winning control, down one point from 68. The most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats. Nationally, Trump's approval sits at 38.4 percent, disapproval at 60.1. The generic ballot has Democrats at 50.9, Republicans at 42.1.

Maya Before we go, Daniel - what's the race to watch tonight?

Daniel Nevada's governor race. Ford and Lombardo are tied, margin of zero, across 13 polls. No leader to report there.

Maya That's Crosstab Live. We'll be back when the numbers move.