Crosstab Live Afternoon: Pennsylvania Blowout, Senate Odds Hold

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome to Crosstab Live Afternoon. Daniel, we've got a new poll out of Pennsylvania's Governor race that just moved the data wall.

Daniel We do, Maya. Quinnipiac has Democrat Josh Shapiro at 59 percent, Republican Stacy Garrity at 34. That's a 25 point lead.

Maya Twenty-five points from one pollster. What does that do to the average, Daniel?

Daniel It nudges it up. Our crosstab average now has Shapiro ahead by 24.3 points, up from 23.8 before this poll came in.

Maya A half-point shift. Not nothing, but not a shakeup either.

Daniel Right. Let's zoom out to the national picture while we're here, Maya.

Maya Please do. Where do we stand on the Senate?

Daniel Our model gives Democrats a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans 32 percent. The most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And the generic ballot, Daniel? Any movement there?

Daniel Here's where things stand: Democrats at 50.9 percent on the generic ballot, Republicans at 42.1. President Trump's approval is 38.4, disapproval 60.1.

Maya Numbers worth keeping an eye on.

Daniel Steady, yes. Maya, before we go, what's the race you want on the wall that we haven't touched yet?

Maya Nevada's Governor race. Ford versus Lombardo. That's one we're watching.

Daniel Thirteen polls in on that one so far, and right now there's no clear leader in our average. A race worth checking back on.

Maya We will. That's Crosstab Live Afternoon. Join us again at 9 p.m. Eastern.