Crosstab Live Morning: New York, Michigan, and the Senate Math

Transcript

Maya Good morning, and welcome to Crosstab Live Morning. We're 28 days out, and the number everyone's talking about is a brand new Marist poll in New York's Governor race.

Daniel Good morning, Maya. Marist shows Hochul leading Blakeman 53 to 42, an 11 point margin, among New York voters.

Maya How does that stack up against the overall polling average there, Daniel?

Daniel Right in line. Our crosstab average has Hochul ahead by 11.4 points, so this new survey matches what the broader data already show.

Maya Let's head to Michigan, Daniel, where there's also something fresh on the board.

Daniel There is. Mitchell Research has Benson up on James, 46 to 39, a 7 point edge in that Governor's race.

Maya And the average for that one?

Daniel Our crosstab average puts Benson ahead by 7.3 points right now. That's the current snapshot there, nothing more.

Maya Let's zoom out, Daniel. What's the national temperature this morning?

Daniel Trump's approval sits at 38.4 percent, disapproval at 60.1 percent. On the generic ballot, Democrats are at 50.8 percent, Republicans at 42.1 percent.

Maya And for Senate control itself?

Daniel Democrats have a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans 32 percent. The most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats. Maya, does that number surprise you?

Maya Not really, Daniel — the control math checks out. Let's turn to a race we haven't covered yet this morning: Nevada's Governor race.

Daniel That's a race we're watching, Maya. No candidate leads in our average right now — Ford and Lombardo sit at the same mark, margin zero, across 13 polls so far.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Morning. Join us again at noon Eastern.