Crosstab Live Tonight: Texas Shakes the Board

Transcript

Maya Good evening, and welcome to Crosstab Live Tonight. We start in Texas, where a new poll just landed.

Daniel Maya, YouGov has Talarico up 50 to 44 on Paxton. That is a 6 point lead in a single poll.

Maya Six points sounds big. How does that stack up against the average there, Daniel?

Daniel The average still has Talarico ahead, but by 3 points. One poll moves the needle, it does not reset it.

Maya Fair point. What about New Hampshire? I know YouGov was out there too.

Daniel Pappas at 51, Sununu at 43. That is an 8 point edge, and the running average there is now 6.8 points for Pappas.

Maya Daniel, flip the map to Florida. Different direction there, right?

Daniel Right. Moody leads Nixon 49 to 44 in the new poll. The average ticked up too, from 4.7 to 5.7 points for Moody.

Maya That's a real move, Daniel. Any race tonight sitting within 1 point?

Daniel Michigan Senate. El-Sayed edges Rogers 49 to 48 in the new poll, a 1 point gap, though the broader average has El-Sayed up 3.4.

Maya And the Texas Governor race, that one's been narrowing too.

Daniel It has. Abbott's average lead dropped from 2.5 to 1.6 points over Hinojosa. A race we're watching closely. So, Maya, which number tonight surprises you most?

Maya Honestly, the Senate math. Where do we stand on control?

Daniel Democrats sit at a 68 percent chance of winning control, with 52 seats as the most likely outcome. Trump's approval is 38.4, disapproval 60.1, and the generic ballot has Democrats up 50.8 to 42.1.

Maya One more before we go. Nevada's Governor race has not had fresh polling today, but 13 polls sit right near even between Ford and Lombardo.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Tonight. Join us again at 8 a.m. Eastern tomorrow.