Crosstab Live Afternoon: New Hampshire Moves, Nevada Holds Even

Transcript

Maya Good afternoon, and welcome to Crosstab Live Afternoon. Since our last update, a new Senate poll just landed in New Hampshire, and it's a strong one for Pappas.

Daniel Saint Anselm College has Pappas at 51 percent, Sununu at 44. That's a 7 point lead for Pappas in their newest poll.

Maya Daniel, how does that fit with the broader trend in that race?

Daniel It tracks closely. The crosstab average now has Pappas up 6.2 points, so this new number nudges things slightly but doesn't change the picture.

Maya Same pollster also tested the New Hampshire Governor's race today.

Daniel Ayotte leads Warmington 52 to 45 in that poll, a 7 point margin.

Maya And where does that put the average, Daniel?

Daniel Ayotte's lead sits at 9.3 points now, down from 10.5. That's a 1.2 point shift toward Warmington, though Ayotte is still comfortably ahead.

Maya Let's move to New York - Hochul and Blakeman got new numbers too.

Daniel Co/efficient has Hochul at 48, Blakeman at 41, a 7 point edge. But the average there is down to 11.6 points, a 1.5 point shift.

Maya That's a real move, Daniel. Does it change how comfortable Hochul's position is?

Daniel Not really. Eleven and a half points is still a wide lead. It's a shift, not a different race.

Maya Now to Nevada - a race we're watching that we haven't covered yet today.

Daniel Noble Predictive Insights has Lombardo at 38, Ford at 37 - 1 point apart. The average is tied there after 13 polls. Maya, with Nevada this even, how do you read the national Senate math?

Maya Fair turn, Daniel. Nationally, Democrats have a 68 percent chance of winning control, with 52 seats as the most likely count. The generic ballot has them up 50.8 to 42.1, and Trump's approval is at 38.4 percent, disapproval 60.1.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Afternoon. Join us again at 9 p.m. Eastern.