Crosstab Live Morning: Maine Numbers Move

Transcript

Maya Good morning, and welcome to Crosstab Live Morning. We're starting with a new number out of Maine Senate.

Daniel Right, Maya. Marist just dropped a poll there: Jackson at 51 percent, Collins at 47 percent. That's Jackson up 4 points.

Maya How does that stack up against where the average has been, Daniel?

Daniel Our crosstab average currently has Jackson ahead by 0.8 points. So this new poll pushes the margin wider than what we've been tracking.

Maya Marist was busy up there - they also polled the Maine Governor's race, didn't they?

Daniel They did. Pingree leads Charles 52 to 40 - a 12 point spread. Our average has that race at 11 points for Pingree.

Maya Two very different margins in the same state, Maine.

Daniel And a third poll just in from Michigan. Mitchell Research & Communications has El-Sayed ahead of Rogers, 46 to 41 - a 5 point lead. Our average puts that race at 3.6 points for El-Sayed.

Maya Daniel, with three new numbers this morning, where does that leave the fight for the Senate overall?

Daniel Democrats are sitting at a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans at 32 percent. Our most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And on the national side - what's happening with approval and the generic ballot?

Daniel Trump's approval is at 38.4 percent, disapproval at 60.1. On the generic ballot, Democrats lead 50.8 to 42.1 for Republicans.

Maya Before we go, there's a race we haven't touched yet this morning - Kansas Senate.

Daniel That's right. Hamilton and Marshall are separated by just 0.4 points across 11 polls - a race we're watching closely. Maya, what's your read on a margin that small?

Maya I'd say it's a race we're watching, Daniel, not one where I'm making any calls today.

Maya That's Crosstab Live Morning. Join us again at noon Eastern.