Maine Moves, Michigan Holds

Transcript

Maya Good evening, I'm Maya, and we've got a fresh number just in. Marist just released a new Maine Senate poll, and it's got Daniel at the wall already.

Daniel That's right, Maya. Marist has Democrat Jackson at 51 percent, Republican Collins at 47 percent. That's a 4 point lead for Jackson.

Maya Four points. That's a real move, Daniel. How does that stack up against the running average in that race?

Daniel It's a jump. The crosstab average in Maine is sitting at just 0.8 points for Jackson. So this poll pulls the needle, but it hasn't rewritten the picture yet.

Maya Let's head over to Michigan, Daniel, another new number just came in there too.

Daniel Mitchell Research has Democrat El-Sayed at 46 percent, Republican Rogers at 41 percent. That's a 5 point lead for El-Sayed.

Maya And the average there, Daniel?

Daniel The crosstab average in Michigan is 3.6 points for El-Sayed. So this one lines up with the trend, not a surprise like Maine.

Daniel Maya, turn it back on you for a second. Which number would you trust more, the one poll or the average?

Maya The average, every time, Daniel. One poll's a headline, the average is the story.

Maya Let's zoom out to the full map while we're at it.

Daniel Right now Democrats have a 68 percent chance of winning Senate control, Republicans sit at 32 percent. The most likely outcome is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And where do approval and the generic ballot stand tonight, Daniel?

Daniel Trump's approval is at 38.4 percent, disapproval at 60.1 percent. On the generic ballot, Democrats lead 50.8 percent to 42.1 percent.

Maya Before we go, one more to flag. Kansas Senate is a race we're watching, within 1 point between Hamilton and Marshall.

Maya That's Crosstab Live. We'll be back when the numbers move.