Kansas in Focus

Transcript

Maya Welcome back to Crosstab Live. Twenty-nine days to the election, and it's a quiet one since our last update, Daniel.

Daniel It really is, Maya. No new polls, no lead changes anywhere on the board. So let's use the time to dig into a race we haven't covered today: Kansas.

Maya Kansas. Walk me through where that one stands right now.

Daniel Democrat Hamilton leads Republican Marshall by 0.4 points. That's within 1 point, Maya, based on 11 polls in that race so far.

Maya Eleven polls is a real sample. Does that change how much weight you put on that 0.4 number?

Daniel It gives us more confidence in the shape of the race, even with a margin that small. Eleven separate looks at the same contest is a solid foundation.

Maya Let's zoom out, Daniel. Where does that leave Senate control overall?

Daniel Democrats sit at a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans at 32 percent. The most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya And on the national numbers, anything notable there today?

Daniel Steady as well. Trump's approval is 38.4 percent, disapproval 60.1 percent. The generic ballot has Democrats at 50.8 percent, Republicans at 42.1 percent.

Maya So nothing's moved since the last update, but Kansas is still worth watching with a margin that small.

Daniel It is. Let me turn it back on you, Maya, for a change: with numbers this quiet, what keeps you coming back to a race like Kansas?

Maya Honestly, Daniel, it's the margin. Anything under a point keeps me paying attention, even on a slow news day.

Maya That's Crosstab Live. We'll be back when the numbers move.