California Surge, Kansas Watch

Transcript

Maya Good evening, and welcome to Crosstab Live Tonight. Daniel, I hope you had your coffee, because the wall's busy tonight.

Daniel Triple shot, Maya. I'm going to need it. Let's start with California, because two new polls just landed there.

Maya Let's get right into it. What are we seeing in the Governor's race?

Daniel The David Wolfson Poll has Becerra at 46, Hilton at 40. That's Becerra by 6 points.

Maya And that's narrower than where this race has been sitting, right, Daniel?

Daniel It is. The average margin was 20.4 points for Becerra. Now it's 16.1. That's a 4.3 point move toward Hilton.

Maya Was the second poll telling a similar story?

Daniel Mostly. Independent Voter Project has Becerra at 48, Hilton at 38. That's a 10 point lead, still Becerra's biggest cushion of the two.

Daniel Maya, with two polls pointing different directions on the margin, which one would you trust more?

Maya Honestly, I'd watch the average over any single poll. That's why we track it nightly.

Maya Now, let's turn to a race we haven't covered today. Kansas Senate.

Daniel This one's a race we're watching closely. Hamilton and Marshall are within 1 point, with the margin at just 0.4. Eleven polls in, and it hasn't broken open.

Maya So where does that leave the overall picture for Senate control tonight?

Daniel Democrats sit at a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans at 32 percent. Most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats.

Daniel On the national numbers, Trump's approval is 38.4 percent, disapproval 60.1. The generic ballot has Democrats at 50.8, Republicans at 42.1.

Maya Plenty to keep an eye on. That's Crosstab Live Tonight. Join us again at 8 a.m. Eastern tomorrow.