Steady Numbers, One Race to Watch

Transcript

Maya Welcome back to Crosstab Live. Since the last live update, the national picture has not moved much, but there is one race we have not covered today that deserves a look. Daniel, set the scene.

Daniel Maya, the top line numbers are holding exactly where they were. Trump's approval sits at 38.4 percent, disapproval at 60.1 percent, and the generic ballot has Democrats at 51 percent to Republicans' 42 percent.

Maya And for Senate control, where does that leave us tonight?

Daniel Democrats have a 68 percent chance of winning control, Republicans a 32 percent chance. The most likely outcome right now is 52 Democratic seats.

Maya Let's look at the full map before we go deeper.

Daniel The map overall looks familiar from our last update, Maya. Nothing has flipped color. But there is one contest on here we have not spent time on today.

Maya Kansas. Take us there.

Daniel This is a race we're watching closely. Democrat Hamilton leads Republican Marshall by just 0.4 points, with 11 polls in so far.

Maya Within 1 point is about as narrow as it gets without calling a winner.

Daniel Exactly. Hamilton has the edge right now, but with 31 days until the election, there is plenty of room between the candidates to keep watching.

Maya So to sum up tonight: approval steady at 38.4 percent, the generic ballot still favors Democrats 51 to 42, and Democrats hold a 68 percent chance at Senate control.

Daniel And keep an eye on Kansas, Maya. Eleven polls in, and still just 0.4 points separating Hamilton and Marshall.

Maya That's Crosstab Live. We'll be back when the numbers move.